Warmer Winters Threaten Smaller Ski Areas

Big ski resorts have the resources to adapt to global warming but smaller hills may be wiped off the map as New England's winters change

By Lindsey Konkel and DailyClimate.org

Jiminy Peak Mountain Resort in western Massachusetts is positioning itself for a future with a shorter, more unpredictable winter. Scientists say half the Northeast's ski areas will be able to maintain a 100-day season in 30 years, a benchmark of economic viability. Image: Flickr/randomduck

HANCOCK, Mass. ? The scene is something no ski resort operator wants to see early in the season: Sunlight glaring off the sloppy snow pooling like dirty mashed potatoes at the base of the high-speed six-person chairlift.?

The thermometer at Jiminy Peak Mountain Resort in western Massachusetts reads 59 degrees Fahrenheit on this mid-November day, and Brian Fairbank, president and CEO of Jiminy Peak, is convinced the remaining snow will keep.

A northern exposure, aggressive snowmaking during the prior week's cold snap, and hard manmade snow crystals ? the kind responsible for that notorious East Coast ice ? will help the resort survive the week's forecast of 50s and 60s.

Just two days earlier, Jiminy's slopes were teeming with skiers and snowboarders on one of the earliest season openers in a decade. Now the mountain's not open this week until Saturday, when it plans to begin full-time day and night operations.?

Fairbank has grown increasingly accustomed to weather inconsistencies over the past 44 years of his tenure at the mountain. And he is not alone.

The United Nations Environment Programme has identified the ski industry, which needs cold weather and snow to thrive, as one of the most vulnerable industries to climate change worldwide.

In the northeast United States, at least, it may not be the Killington's, the Stowe's or the Sugarloaf's that are at risk. Most endangered are smaller, regional operations at lower elevations farther south that either can't adapt or can't afford to adapt as warmer temperatures and less reliable snowpack shortly become the new norm.

Tough road ahead
Across the country, climate change impacts will likely vary by region. For the West, for instance, water scarcity and drought could end up having a big effect, as ski areas lose the ability to reliably make snow.

But generally, less predictable winter weather means a tough road ahead for any ski area. And in the Northeast, increasingly unreliable winters could affect more than half of the region's 103 active ski areas, according to a report published in September in the journal Tourism Management.

Shorter ski seasons and a lower probability of being open during the lucrative Christmas-New-Year holiday week could doom many of the smaller resorts, the researchers concluded.

"Climate change is like any other business risk ? it will create opportunities for some, misfortune for others," said Daniel Scott, a professor of tourism management at the University of Waterloo in Canada and part of the team of researchers studying climate change's impact on Northeast ski areas such as Jiminy Peak.

By 2039, the researchers found, only half of the ski areas in the Northeast will be able to maintain a 100-day season ? a measure of economic viability in the ski industry.

For smaller, southern-tier resorts closer to the major metropolitan areas, the view is especially grim. Within 30 years, no ski areas in Massachusetts or Connecticut will be able to maintain a 100-day ski season and only one-third of the resorts in New York could regularly expect to be open during the holidays. Even with the most efficient snowmaking technology available today, climbing temperatures will make it tough to make enough snow to stay open, said Scott.

The big mountain resorts of Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont, in contrast, are expected to thrive through mid-century and may even stand to gain more clients as smaller, more southern areas fail and the industry contracts northward.

'A mixed bag'
It's not just about latitude and elevation. The researchers did not account for other aspects of the ski resort business, such as investments in state-of-the-art snowmaking technology, sources of revenue, or capital available for adaptation?other factors, said Dawson, which may ultimately determine if the business floats or sinks.

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=b100c5925c20216e11177732b1849f0b

creighton new smyrna beach st. joseph puerto rico primary manning peyton florida state